MEGA CITIES PROJECTS....

Gridlocked and flood-prone, Vietnam’s biggest city struggles to keep pace with its own breakneck growth

Ho Chi Minh City need decisive action fast to overcome crowding and climate challenges and secure its 10 million residents' future quality of life

Some bold ideas have been put forward, but funding woes and infrastructure paralysis mean its problems could turn into a drag on the whole economy

As soon as the roads are widened a fresh glut of cars moves in to fill them, says lifelong Ho Chi Minh City resident Thinh Pham, who fears urban planning is forever condemned to lag behind the unrelenting growth of one of Southeast Asia's most dynamic cities.

Young, energetic and teeming with start-ups and finance houses, Vietnam's biggest city and economic engine room is also facing some of its most urgent challenges: gridlocked roads, flooding and infrastructure that's sagging under the weight of 10 million residents.

"I could be wrong, but when it comes to flooding they aren't fixing any foundational problems, only building higher streets, and the city is sinking faster than they build," Thinh Pham told This Week in Asia.

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"I feel like people are moving here as fast as they expand the streets. There was a bridge near my house where they removed the sidewalks to expand the road ... and two months after they finished the traffic was just as bad. The streets here are not made for cars. It's crazy!"

Riders sit in traffic in Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam's biggest city is prone to congestion and gridlock. Photo: Shutterstock

Thinh Pham's gripes are familiar to many of Ho Chi Minh City's residents, grappling every day with the trials of life in a fast-growing megacity.

Experts warn that the congestion and overcrowding are symptoms of broader development struggles, with a lengthy list of essential projects facing extended delays likely to make the tough parts of city life even harder over the coming years.

"You need to classify these issues into two types of challenges," said Andrew Jeffries, Country Director for the Asian Development Bank. "The first is the routine urbanisation headaches of pollution, congestion, access to public services, and affordable housing."

"The other category would be the climate-related challenges, which are particularly acute," he said. "These two types of challenges are going to intersect and create serious problems," Jeffries said, citing the combination of rainfall and rising sea levels as "the top threat to the viability of Ho Chi Minh City".

Plans for various bridges, ports, ring roads, parks, and cultural spaces for Ho Chi Minh City remain on paper years after being announced. Photo: AFP

© Provided by South China Morning Post Plans for various bridges, ports, ring roads, parks, and cultural spaces for Ho Chi Minh City remain on paper years after being announced. Photo: AFP Delays, poor planning create flood defence headaches

Delays to major infrastructure projects aimed at alleviating congestion and flooding are creating troubles for the future, experts warn.

The most high-profile is the city's first metro line, which was initially set to connect downtown Ho Chi Minh City to the eastern suburbs by 2018. Construction of the Japanese-funded route began in 2012, but cost overruns and delays have pushed the opening date back to late 2023. Further lines are only at the planning stage.

Tan Son Nhat, the city's airport, has been operating above capacity for years, but work has yet to begin on a planned third terminal despite the prime minister demanding this happen by September 30. A massive new airport is slowly taking shape in a neighbouring province, with the first phase expected to open in late 2025.

The roster of delayed projects also includes a US$437 million flood protection system that was initially scheduled for completion in 2018 and would reduce the risk of tidal flooding for more than 6 million people. It currently has no operational date.

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Various bridges, ports, ring roads, parks, and cultural spaces remain on paper years after being announced, causing Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, to call for city officials to prioritise infrastructure development during a recent visit.

The Asian Development Bank has ranked the metropolis among the 10 cities most likely to be severely affected by climate change. While it has not yet experienced catastrophic flooding like Bangkok or Jakarta, inundation caused by heavy rain and high tides is common in numerous areas.

A World Bank official who requested anonymity to speak freely about issues facing the city said that addressing rain and tidal flood risks separately is a mistake, while flood mapping and modelling are also poor.

"The most important events to ensure protection against are those where multiple hazards occur at the same time; a high rainfall event, during a high tide, when the river flow is strong," the official said. "Without understanding the likelihood of occurrence and impact of these events, no flood protection system can offer comprehensive protection, and flooding will continue to occur."

Houses are seen along the Xuyen Tam canal in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: AFP

The worsening twin challenges of rapid urbanisation and climate change are exacerbated by two significant shortcomings in Ho Chi Minh City's management.

"The most important reason for infrastructure delays is that Ho Chi Minh City hasn't got enough funding," said Le Hong Hiep, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute's Vietnam studies programme.

"City officials have complained about this for a long time, as they generate a lot of revenue, yet they are not allowed to retain a large enough portion for investment and development."

Ho Chi Minh City contributes 27 per cent of the annual national budget, or roughly US$25 billion, but only keeps 23 per cent of the revenue it generates. The rest is sent to the central government for dispersal to less-developed provinces. Before this year, the city's budget retention rate was 18 per cent.

The capabilities of local governments are known to be limited in terms of planning, selecting contracts, and follow-through

Le Hong Hiep, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

"There have also been problems with execution and implementation," Hiep said. "The capabilities of local governments are known to be limited in terms of planning, selecting contracts, and follow-through, so even when there is money, there are issues with poor quality, delays, and corruption, which has contributed to the rather poor condition of infrastructure."

In an example of inefficient implementation, 100 public projects in the city received no funding in the first six months of the year, even though funds were set aside.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh addressed slow disbursement on a national level at an online conference on Monday, saying: "If we can't disburse the money we have, it's our fault."

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According to Hiep, an ongoing governmentwide anti-corruption campaign may have had the unintended consequence of panicking officials in charge of deciding where money should go and paralysing their decision making.

"The campaign has caused local officials to pursue self-preservation, so they don't want to make decisions for fear of becoming the subject of a corruption investigation," Hiep said.

"The government needs to consider how to fight corruption while also encouraging local officials to take the initiative."

Construction on Ho Chi Minh City's metro is seen in 2015. The line was initially set to open in 2018, but has been beset by cost overruns and delays. Photo: Shutterstock

© Provided by South China Morning Post Construction on Ho Chi Minh City's metro is seen in 2015. The line was initially set to open in 2018, but has been beset by cost overruns and delays. Photo: Shutterstock Bold ideas for a new 'city-within-a-city'

While infrastructure breakthroughs have been difficult, municipal officials took a bold administrative step in 2020 by merging three eastern districts into a sub-city called Thu Duc City, the first of its kind in Vietnam.

With a population of over 1 million, officials modelled this 'city-within-a-city' after London's Canary Wharf or Shanghai's Pudong, and theoretically gave it administrative autonomy to spur economic growth like China did with Shenzhen.

The goal is for Thu Duc City to become an economic hub accounting for seven per cent of national GDP. But it's an experiment that's still in its early stages.

Organisations like the World Bank see effective development of the sub-city as vital for Ho Chi Minh City's sustainability as a whole, given the former's relatively low population and building density.

Flood protection will be a key part of its growth and a chance to set a model for future urban development.

"We need a clear vision and strategic concept for flood risk management in Thu Duc City in a way that directly contributes to the city's long-term development," the World Bank official said.

"The first step is to ensure a high amount of flood retention ... the second step is to develop a system of physical protection. Development in the coming decades should be guided with flood risk in mind."

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It is a common mistake of cities in the grip of breakneck growth to develop without considering flood risks and viewing offset land for water retention as wasted space, the official said.

"Rather, it can be developed as a system of parks, which increases land values and the profits of real estate developers," the official said.

"In Thu Duc, there is a tremendous opportunity to build a system of linear parks next to canals, rivers, and streams to create a world-class recreation network."

Lack of green space is a significant quality of life issue in Ho Chi Minh City, which has an estimated 0.55 square metres of public parks per resident, compared to 30 square metres in Singapore. City leaders have pledged to improve this figure, but central districts have little spare land.

The World Bank has suggested establishing a 500-hectare area for recreation and tourism in Thu Duc similar to Singapore's Sentosa Island and relocating the city's historic but poorly maintained zoo to this space.

"Relocating the Saigon Zoo and developing the 20 hectares of land it occupies could create up to US$9 billion for the city government through land rights sales for commercial development and adjacent riverfront development," the World Bank official said.

Decisive action needed for city's future

Experts agree that action is needed now on mass transit, flood protection, traffic management, green space, and other drivers of Ho Chi Minh City's future quality of life.

"The city is still relatively liveable in many ways and could potentially become a great city, but it could also go south," Jeffries said, adding that "real political will" was needed to drive change.

"It's much harder to deal with a problem 20 years later when there's more development, people, structures, and congestion than now," he said.

"But there's nothing physical, geographic, or intrinsic that would stop the city from constructing a good, viable mass transit system, keeping green spaces and putting in flood management."

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Without decisive action in the economic dynamo that is modern-day Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City's infrastructure problems could turn into a drag on the country as a whole.

"The obvious victim of further delays is the economic growth of the city itself, and then, by extension, it will constrain Vietnam's economic growth," Hiep said.

For Diep Nguyen, a cafe owner and entrepreneur, much remains to be done to elevate the quality of life in Ho Chi Minh City.

She says traffic is a daily grind and while some roads on her routes have been upgraded, flooding in her cafe's neighbourhood "seems worse every year".

CS terms Karachi’s law, order situation ‘alarming’

KARACHI: Chief Secretary Sindh Sohail Rajput on Wednesday declared Karachi’s law and order as alarming, saying a number of crime incidents have taken place in the megacity during the last few days.

Addressing as chief guest at seminar titled: ‘security beyond expectation’ organized by Karachi Chambers of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) in collaboration with Hikvision (artificial intelligence) at a local hotel, he said the Chief Minister Sindh Syed Murad Ali Shah has convened a high-level meeting to review the law and order situation, today, and a strategy has been designed to curb the growing crime particularly the mugging through improved policing.

He said some 10 thousand CCTV cameras will be installed in various points of the megacity under the safe city project.

He said its fundamental responsibility of the government to ensure protection of lives and properties of the citizens, and the Sindh government will make its all out efforts to ensure peace in the city. “Karachi is engine for the economy of Pakistan,” he said.

KCCI president Muhammad Idrees said street crime and the deteriorating situation of the law and order is a major problem being faced by Karachi that needs to be addressed on priority basis. In fact the situation is getting worse with every passing day.

Whereas, the Global Livability Index released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) that revealed that Karachi has been ranked among the top 10 worst places due to increasing pollution and insufficient measures to control overflowing waste within the city of lights.

Considering the population growth rate in Karachi and continuously depreciating state of the city it is an immense need of the hour to deploy modern state of the art technology such as artificial intelligence.

Although steps have been taken in this regard, the joint venture between the Sindh Government and the National Radio and Telecommunication Corpora-tion (NRTC), called the Safe City Project, aimed at installing 10,000 state-of-the-art cameras in the entire city, as well as upgrading the existing 2,000 CCTVS present in the city.

The project has been launched on 24th June 2022, and is expected to be completed in two phases, with 4,000 cameras being installed in the first phase and 6,000 in the second phase.

These innovations assist to serve a diverse set of vertical markets as the broad range of physical security products, including video security, alarm and access control systems. Along with this, integrated security solutions powered by AI technology for supporting end-users with new application and possibilities for safety management and business intelligence, are also a major area of their business activity.

However the businesses can extend their operation through vertical markets by innovating products related to smart homes, automotive electronics, robotics, intelligent storage, infrared sensing, fire security, X-ray detection and medical imaging, for the purpose of exploring new channels for sustaining long-term development.

Moreover, deploying Artificial Intelligence based systems can be an effective solution to the existing problems of the law and order situation. AI can allow any system to perceive and transform a provided situation, by digitally or physically acting accordingly. For instance, AI-based software can process live video surveillance images to detect weapons.

In most cases, urban robberies involve weapons such as guns. This software can automatically identify the presence of a weapon from a surveillance camera in real time which increases the software’s reliability in assessing a threat within an area under surveillance.

AI is most commonly used to detect crimes such as fraud and money laundering. This innovation assists in Real Time Patrol Monitoring as well which helps to minimize the risk of security breaches.

The security forces like Police should employee those who have the knowledge and skills to operate such technologically advanced systems which can ultimately help to attain our goal.

Various industries to gain competitive edge against their competitors have transformed by installing the technologies of machine perception, big data and AI- artificial intelligence. The role of AI in waste management begins with intelligent garbage bins. Waste management companies take advantage of Internet of Things sensors to monitor the fullness of trash containers throughout the megacity. This allows municipalities to optimize waste collection routes, times, and frequencies.

Mumbai's Aarey Colony - 3,000 Acres And A Metro Project

The car-shed dispute is tangled up in local and national politics.

Shouts of "Azadi"- Hindi for freedom - keep time with the rhythmic beating of drums as protesters gather in a densely wooded area in Mumbai.

Since July, crowds ranging in size from dozens to hundreds have been congregating for these weekly Sunday demonstrations. At issue: a metro train car shed set to rise on undeveloped land in Aarey Colony, a lush pocket of urban wilderness that environmentalists consider the last "green lung" in the Indian megacity.

Spread over approximately 3,000 acres and owned primarily by the state's Dairy Development Department, Aarey Colony is a mix of wetlands and woodlands, as well as clusters of mud-brick homes and small farming plots, all within the limits of the densely packed city of Mumbai. For around eight years, this rare green space has been ground zero in a conflict over how to complete a much-needed mass transit system without damaging a fragile ecosystem - and the indigenous communities that rely on it.

To combat congestion and pollution in a metropolitan region with an estimatedpopulation of over 20 million, Mumbai desperately needs to complete the 14-line metro system currently under construction. In particular, the Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation (MMRC) - a joint venture between the state and central government - has advanced plans for one crucial line, known as Metro Line 3, which calls for constructing a train car shed inside Aarey Colony.

A coalition of environmental groups and Adivasis, or members of India's indigenous communities, have joined with other residents of the area to fight the proposal: Encroaching development in Aarey Colony has already shrunk the green space, and many fear the metro project will open to the door to future projects.

The car-shed dispute is tangled up in local and national politics. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Maharashtra originally planned the metro car shed for Aarey Colony in 2014. But after Uddhav Thackeray came to power in the state in 2019, they sought to preserve the area, designating around 800 acres as reserved forest land the following year and vowing to move the shed to a different location. This June, an internal party rebellion ousted Mr Thackeray; his replacement Eknath Shinde, allied with the BJP, restarted preparations for construction in Aarey Colony in his very first cabinet meeting within a day of taking power.

The question of whether to proceed with the controversial project now rests with the Supreme Court. After multiple delays, the petitioners on a case led by environmental nonprofit Vanashakti are hoping for a comprehensive hearing towards the end of September. The results will have significant implications for the future of Mumbai: The petitioners are not only hoping to stop the construction of the car shed, but are also pressing for all of Aarey Colony to be designated a protected forest, likely putting an end to any other such construction projects in this area.

Representatives for the MMRC and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority didn't respond to requests for comment.

In an extremely crowded city with limited green space and parks, the fate of Aarey Colony is an issue that goes far beyond its immediate surrounding neighborhoods, advocates say.

"If we lose this, we lose our water supply," says Shivani Bhatt, a protester who is concerned about damage to the site's four rivers, and in particular, the flood plain of the nearby Mithi River. "We lose clean air. We lose our [city's natural] air conditioning. It's pertinent with climate change that we protect this area."

Though it's located just 20 miles from downtown Mumbai, the area has long managed to avoid development because it was mainly owned by the state's Dairy Development Department. In the 1950s, Aarey Colony became known as a "milk colony" - intended to produce dairy products for the city. As decades passed, the city around the area swiftly transformed into a powerhouse of industry and a cosmopolitan hub of filmmaking and culture.

"What is the leopard going to do? Is he going to ride the metro?"

Residents turned to Aarey Colony for an escape from city life, drawn by its lakes and gardens, boating spots, and its proximity to the officially protected Sanjay Gandhi National Park. The area is also home to about two dozen Adivasi hamlets, as well as cobras, vipers, newly discovered species of scorpions and spiders, and the most revered of all - leopards.

Aarey Colony has already faced numerous encroachments in the form of large housing complexes and a Bollywood studio facility called Film City, but the Metro Line 3 car shed has become the most controversial project thus far. Though its proponents argue that the car shed will occupy only 2% to 3% of the whole area, it will involve cutting roughly 2,700 trees. Stalin Dayanand, the director of Vanashakti, says that the environmental group accessed minutes from internal government meetings that suggest the car shed could be just the first step towards transforming the area into a glittering strip of commercial development.

"Aarey lands are prime property in the heart of the city, in a green zone," says Dayanand, who is also a petitioner before the Supreme Court to preserve the land. "Any construction in Aarey will have high premium value."

Deadly Overcrowding

The location of the car shed aside, nearly everyone in Mumbai agrees that the city needs more - and safer - public transportation. Each day, more than 8 million commuters squeeze themselves onto the city's aging suburban rail system, which often operates well beyond capacity. This overcrowding has deadly consequences: In 2021, roughly five people per day died falling from packed trains or attempting to cross the tracks, according to railway police estimates, even though many commuters were working from home.

Meanwhile, Mumbai's roadways face worsening congestion, with reports of 47% more new car registrations in 2021. The MMRC estimates that the Metro Line 3 project will transport 1.7 million Mumbaikars per day, reducing car trips by more than 600,000 daily, and curbing fuel consumption as well as air and noise pollution.

"If there is one city that would benefit from a metro, it's Mumbai," says Shreya Gadepalli of the Urban Works Institute, a Chennai-based think tank. She notes that the only line that is currently operational in the city has the highest ridership per kilometer in all of India: "It's a promising sign."

For those who live in Aarey Colony, however, the conflict has little to do with the metro itself. "As Adivasis, we are not opposed to the metro at all," says Anil Page, an Adivasi man who lives in Aarey. But he is frustrated at the process: For years, another possible location for the metro car shed was discussed and then rejected due to politically fraught debates over ownership of that land. So far, officials say approximately 1,780 "hutments" (a term for unauthorized housing) and 709 families living on privately held land will be impacted by this metro line. Page says he would rather be killed than uprooted. "We're not going to give this up without a fight."

Sitting in her own mud-brick dwelling, Page's sister, Vinita Thakre, speaks of the Adivasis' close connection to nature; families like hers rely on fresh-caught mud crabs, fruit from mango trees, and other local foods. Communities in Aarey Colony also live among animals like cobras and leopards. Despite the risks, Ms Thakre says she holds no fear of the big predators; in fact, she says, the leopard "is like a god." Not far from her home is the Waghoba temple, where some Adivasis worship a brightly painted idol of a big cat.

Camera traps have captured images of leopards moving through the metro car shed area, leaving the community worried about what will happen to these endangered creatures if construction proceeds. "Just like we live off the jungle, the leopard lives off the jungle," Ms Thakre says. "What is the leopard going to do? Is he going to ride the metro?"

Some urban planning specialists, though still optimistic about the metro project, have wider concerns about the transit system. While much of Metro Line 3 will be underground, the rest of the lines are elevated, which experts like Dikshu Kukreja, managing principal at C P Kukreja Architects, says is not ideal. "I am a strong proponent of underground metros. These large, concrete nodal lines crisscrossing the city above ground are not the character cities should have."

Underground construction, however, is more expensive. "In India, we often look at capital expenditure, but we don't look at long-term benefits. As an urban planner, I think we need to think long-term," Kukreja says.

Other complain that Mumbai leaders are investing too much in US-style urban highway projects, such as the $1.5-billion Mumbai Coastal Road project, a sweeping eight-lane waterfront expressway set to be completed by the end of 2023. Even using the city's optimistic usage predictions, the road will only benefit about 3% of the population according to University of Pennsylvania professor and environmental anthropologist Nikhil Anand, who came to these projections based on the anticipated drivers as a percentage of Mumbai's population and commuters per car.

Given the city's vast population and increasing vulnerability to extreme heat and flooding, climate-friendlier public transportation infrastructure should be prioritized instead, many critics of the project have pointed out. "Personalized transport is a very American concept that has been romanticized," Kukreja says. "Any city, Mumbai included, should adopt all modes of public transit, including the metro system."

Gadepalli also rejects the notion that environmentally friendly projects are inherently anti-development. "We need to change that way of thinking." As for Aarey Colony, she adds, "There's never an easy answer, but I believe that we need to think about equity and environmental sustainability and ensure that we're not jeopardizing the livelihoods of the vulnerable for the sake of development."

Mumbai also has a pressing need for a centralized authority when it comes to making strategic decisions about the transportation network, says Rahul Kadri, principal architect at IMK Architects in the city. Presently, the bus system, railways, and metro are split into silos.

"We need an authority that is integrated and comprehensive, that is looking at where people commute, how they commute, and how we can make it simpler."

And when it comes to Aarey Colony, in addition to echoing the value of an underground network, he is in favor of placing the metro car shed in another location. Though that option has proven politically difficult, he says: "Why would we use forest land for this? What is the need?"

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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