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Finance prepares to-do list to offset effects of global slowdown
Highlights-
Timely implementation of mega projects, more public-private partnerships (PPP) in development work and facilitating exporters to find new markets are among the government's priorities to cushion the economy from the global slowdown ahead and the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war, the finance ministry has said.
Measures are also being taken to maintain the growth momentum. These include setting up new economic zones, tax administration reforms and measures to improve the ease of doing business, according to a ministry report titled "Socioeconomic progress and recent macroeconomic developments in Bangladesh". The report was prepared by the Finance Division of the ministry.
The plan comes on the heels of growing fears of the spillover effects on exports and remittances – the two contributors to foreign exchange reserves – spurred by high global inflation and output contraction.
Experts have also sounded a note of caution in regards to strained foreign reserves and the impact of unbridled inflation growth and have also called for more immediate impact measures.
Despite promising growth in the first two months (July-August) of the fiscal year, Bangladesh's export may not be able to keep up the tempo throughout the fiscal year due to the global slowdown, especially in the three largest economies in the world – the USA, China and the European Union – the ministry warns in the report.
Director of the Policy Research Institute MA Razzaque told The Business Standard that the global economy was going into a major recession and global economists feared that this could be prolonged until 2030. As a result, both exports and remittances of Bangladesh will decrease, straining the external sector.
"But in the context of the Ukraine war, commodity prices, which have increased in the international market, will fall due to the recession, making the balance of payment deficit somewhat tolerable. However, exports and remittances may fall further, so the pressure on Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves will continue. That's why we have to be careful," he said.
The finance ministry is banking on exporters' resilience, some success in revenue collection and progress in the implementation of mega projects as movers of future growth.
There still remain some short-term priorities to be addressed like a satisfactory current account balance, foreign exchange reserves and inflation, the report says.
It highlighted the overall economic situation, including the decrease in the country's foreign exchange reserves due to the increase in the import cost of food products, fuel oil and gas amid the Ukraine war.
It gauged the effect on the economy after fuel oil prices were hiked and the foreign debt situation, said the report sent to top policymakers.
'Forex first, not revenue'
The main strategy for FY23 is to increase aggregate supply while reducing demand growth.
Success in revenue collection, expected growth in per capita income, construction of the Padma Bridge, along with the implementation progress of other mega projects etc., will ensure strong recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and help cope with the ongoing global challenges, the finance ministry's report says.
The impact of the Ukraine war on Bangladesh's foreign trade will depend on the duration of the war, its multilateralism and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies.
"However, Bangladeshi exporters are resilient enough to ride the current and future challenges. With support from the government, they are trying to both diversify the export basket and also identify new, unconventional markets for Bangladeshi goods and services," it says.
The report also stresses the need for increased automation of the revenue administration and modernisation of tax laws to earn more revenue and speed up the momentum of growth for attaining the 2041 target of the Developed Country status.
Finance ministry officials said the government is redesigning revenue collection strategy to address the existing loopholes and shortcomings, and generate sufficient revenue to support investment and expenditure plans in the medium term.
As Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from the list of Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026, both the national tariff policies and the revenue administration are in the process of transformation.
"Initiatives are underway, with the assistance of the IMF, to conduct a tax expenditure study to bring in efficiency in tax collection, plug loopholes and expand the tax net," the report adds.
"Focus should be on inflation control"
Zahid Hussain, former chief economist of the World Bank Dhaka office, however, said the focus should be on controlling inflation.
"Everyone knows the problem in the revenue sector, so there is no need to do studies and bring reforms there. The most important thing to control inflation was to increase the interest rate on loans, but the government is not doing that."
He also said the pressure on exports had already started, while about six lakh workers went abroad last year and about eight lakh went abroad till September this year, meaning there was little risk of a negative impact on remittances.
Zahid Hussain highlighted that remittance had decreased in September due to the instability of the foreign exchange, saying the government's moves to stabilise forex had been successful only in controlling imports to a certain extent, but the Bangladesh Bank still has to sell dollars to meet the needs of the banks.
The central bank sold $3.20 billion last three months.
He said for overall economic stability, the Finance Division has emphasised on those issues which are good for the medium and long terms, but there was no mention of any special initiative for the current macroeconomic stability.
Current account balance recorded a deficit of $18.7 billion and the overall balance recorded a deficit of $5.4 billion in FY22, while foreign reserves fell below $37 billion.
This has created extraordinary pressure on the foreign exchange management.
"As a pre-emptive initiative, Bangladesh is also seeking foreign loans from the development partners such as IMF, World Bank, ADB, Jica etc," the report adds.
Inflation, business environment
Finance Division officials said inflationary pressure was present in Bangladesh, but the government is working to combat it.
At present, an average of Tk1,745 crore has been allocated for beneficiaries of social security allowances through mobile financial services alone every day.
Some 29% of families in the country have been brought under social security programmes, and the division expects the allocation to double in the next five years.
An effective demand management policy along with boosting the supply side are needed to check the rising trend of inflation, officials said.
"Although Bangladesh has made a strong recovery from the pandemic, economic uncertainties are still looming in the context of global economic recession escalated from the Ukraine war. High inflation has eroded the purchasing power, compromising the living standard of the people," the finance ministry report reads.
Highlighting the government's emphasis on attracting private investment in development projects, the report says of the 77 projects valued at $38.77 billion initiated under the PPP, one has been implemented and nine others are in progress.
Furthermore, to enhance productive investment, the government will strive to remove the key bottlenecks in the economy with special emphasis on power and energy, ports, communication, and the ICT sectors.
To facilitate private sector investment and improve the investment climate, various fees and charges have been slashed, while reforms were initiated to improve the ease of doing business and cut costs.
'Fiscal disciple means low debt distress'
On the much discussed external debt, the finance ministry report says the government attempts to avail only concessional loans from external sources.
Although the overall balance of payment deficit widened in FY22, the government is keen to maintain an affordable and favourable external balance of payment, it says.
Regarding debt sustainability, the report says the latest debt sustainability analysis by the IMF-IDA was conducted in February 2022 which concluded that, "fiscal discipline has kept Bangladesh at a low risk of debt distress".
According to the assessment, overall public debt-to-GDP was 41.4% at the end of FY21, which is expected to stabilise at around 41.8% by FY31 and thereafter. Besides, the external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to settle at around 11.6% by FY42.
The external debt-to-export was 97.5% in FY21 which is expected to stabilise at 93% by FY32 and thereafter, maintaining the threshold, the report adds.
Besides, higher and targeted spending on health and education sectors and bringing reforms to relevant areas would likely increase employability and address skill mismatch.
New insurance facility to speed up low-carbon hydrogen projects
Marsh has launched the world’s first insurance facility for green and blue hydrogen project risks. pv magazine recently spoke with the company about the challenges that operators face in securing insurance coverage for new technologies.
September 28, 2022 Sergio MatalucciMarsh has announced the launch of a first-of-its-kind insurance and reinsurance facility to provide dedicated insurance capacity for new and existing low-carbon hydrogen energy projects. The insurance broker is already in talks with clients, and said that it expects the facility to streamline the financing process.
The simplification of project insurance will accelerate hydrogen developments throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.
“Dependent on the project's timeline, we hope the first attachment to the facility would be signed before the end of the year,” Marsh Global Hydrogen Practice Leader Mark Heneghan told pv magazine. “If not, in early 2023.”
Generally, insurance brokers have to individually negotiate each insurance clause and condition, along with lender endorsements, on behalf of their clients. Marsh’s facility includes them all directly, eliminating the need for continual negotiations. It also focuses on small- to medium-sized projects.
“The facility is not designed for mega projects. We are looking at the smaller end of the scale. The contract value is somewhere in the region of $500 million to $600 million or below,” Rob Hale – Marsh's London market leader, power and renewable energy practice – told pv magazine. “Those are the operations we are targeting with this facility.”
The London-based team of the global insurance broker modeled the facility around its understanding of non-recourse project finance. They focused on all of the clauses and conditions needed to make projects bankable from an insurance standpoint. The launch marks the culmination of a 12-month process, including calls with potential clients and internal meetings through different regional offices.
“Rather than going through a normal placement process, which could take several months, the facility should be able to provide that solution very quickly, enabling either the sign-off of all the lender endorsements and agreements or, if any negotiation with the lender is required, you can have it early,” said Hale.
Similar risk-transfer programs are needed, as insurance is part of the required documentation to access financing. The insurance only kicks in when the project construction starts.
The facility is global, but it will not focus on China and Russia for now, according to the company.
“Chinese projects typically have a lot of capacity within the domestic market space, and they tend to insure home-grown projects locally,” Hale said, adding that projects in Russia are not on the table now, due to international sanctions. “One day maybe, if the sanctions are lifted.”
The facility also targets “clean hydrogen,” which does not necessarily mean blue or green hydrogen.
“If the project is outside the norm, additional discussions with the facility markets would be needed,” said Heneghan.
Marsh expects the facility to gain momentum in the months and years ahead. As more projects are insured, more information is generated about risks to be covered by insurance, simplifying the whole process and streamlining hydrogen projects.
However, it is too early to speak about possible market share, according to Marsh. The company noted that there will be plenty of opportunities for other insurance organizations in the coming years, especially after 2030.
“Globally, $13 trillion needs to be invested by 2050 – that is an extensive amount of capital expenditure that has to happen,” Heneghan said. “We are now at around $500 billion to $700 billion dollars announced by 2030, so much more still needs to be done.”
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Environment chief calls for review of mega solar project
Environment Minister Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi is raising a red flag over a mega solar plant planned by a private sector company in Saitama Prefecture.
He is demanding a wholesale review of the project, the first of its kind in the country, which comes as his ministry assesses the environmental impact of the project.
While the industry minister has the final say, Yamaguchi’s Jan. 25 opinion illustrates the challenge facing the government over how to follow the global trend of increasing renewable energy sources while balancing safety and conservation.
“(Yamaguchi’s opinion) is a message to prospective operators, driving home the importance of giving consideration to the environment and co-existing with local communities as the country is heading into an era of mass energy production with renewable sources,” said a senior official with the ministry.
The rampant development of solar power across the nation has emerged as a growing social issue.
The project in question concerns a 39.6-megawatt solar farm that will be built on an 86-hectare plot on the mountainside in the town of Ogawa.
Yamaguchi said the plan to bring 360,000 cubic meters of sand and earth--which is only half of the total anticipated--to the site to be used as fill dirt for the solar plant is “imposing a burden on the environment.”
He also said the company, Ogawa Energy Godo Gaisha, “did not explain the necessity of having to do so” in its project proposal.
Yamaguchi called on the company to “fundamentally re-examine the project” without having to bring in dirt from outside sources to “use the available soil within the town’s jurisdiction for landfill.”
An official with the ministry’s Office of Environmental Impact Assessment Review said the minister “deliberately used the word ‘landfill’” to signal caution against reckless use of earth and sand brought in from the outside.
The construction of a massive landfill is said to have escalated the July 2021 disaster in Atami, Shizuoka Prefecture, when a large-scale landslide left 27 people dead or missing.
The industry minister will issue a recommendation following the environment minister’s opinion.
If the industry minister concludes that Ogawa Energy’s safety measures are insufficient, the minister can order the project plan changed.
The company, based in Yorii in the prefecture, declined to be interviewed.
Mega solar projects have met opposition from local residents in recent years due to concerns about possible landslides and environmental destruction in their communities.
The staunch local opposition to the projects comes as the government pushes to increase the share of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, in the country’s supply mix.
It plans to double the share of renewable power in fiscal 2030 from 18 percent in fiscal 2019.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the government is assessing the environmental impact of at least seven projects.
The Environment Ministry moved in April 2020 to reflect people’s concerns by placing solar power projects that output 30 megawatts or more under an environmental impact assessment.
In April, the ministry will introduce a program allowing local governments to set up a promotion zone for renewables within their jurisdictions, so long as planned energy projects meet the standards for environmental protection and contribution to local communities.
Enterprise Architecture Software Market to Witness Growth Acceleration | Software AG, MEGA, Sparx Systems
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Special unit to monitor 260 mega development projects
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By Damith Wickramasekara
A special supervisory unit under a Deputy Treasury Secretary is to be appointed to review the progress of 260 mega-scale development projects with a combined investment of Rs. 5.8 trillion, Treasury sources said. The special unit, which will be supported by government agencies, including the Auditor General’s Department, will conduct weekly progress reviews of the projects, many of which have been impacted by the country’s economic crisis in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
About 125 if these projects are financed through foreign sources. The earliest of the projects date from 2012 and should be completed before 2030. Ten of the projects have been initiated this year.
The decision to set up a special unit comes after a survey conducted by government agencies including the Ministry of Finance revealed that though 61 of the 260 projects were to be completed during the first half of this year, 46 of them had failed to generate results as expected.
Moreover, only 15 of the projects have been completed while 15 others are being implemented successfully. From a total of 134 projects 59 have been identified as those which “need special attention” and 75 “at critical status”. Implementation of 14 projects have so far been temporarily suspended.
While a procedure had been adopted this year for allocating funds on a quarterly basis to ensure the optimum utilisation of funds for the projects, the progress was impeded due to a number of issues including restrictions on imports, scarcity of raw material, the fuel crisis, power cuts and difficulties in contract management due to inflation and the shortage of foreign exchange, the Treasury sources noted.
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All the 23 IITs to Come Together for A Mega R&D Show Named IInvenTiv
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IInvenTiv, the first mega Research & Development Fair of all the 23 IITs to be held from October 14-15, 2022The R&D Fair is being organized in commemoration of the 75th year of India’s Independence in line with the Azadi ka Amrit Mahotsav initiative. It will showcase projects on diverse areas covering climate change, sustainability, smart city architecture, rural agriculture, affordable healthcare, drone technology, and so on. The objective is to promote innovations in line with the Make in India, and Digital India initiatives, and seek solutions for better reach and scalability of innovations that benefit the masses across regions.
The event would also host administrators and students from institutions from tier 2 and tier 3 cities for them to have a closer glimpse of the R&D ecosystem of IITs and in turn inculcate similar innovation-driven outlook towards developing projects of national interest. It would facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the requirements at the grass roots level in key areas such as agriculture, rural development, sanitation, resource management etc., and would engage them to develop innovations that make a positive impact on a larger section of society.
Commenting on the prospect of the event, Dr. Pawan Goenka, Chairman, BoG IIT Madras commented, “As India is taking strides to scale new heights in research & innovations, the IITs are at the forefront supporting the nation in attaining self-reliance across sectors. IInvenTiv aims to bring focus to key innovations from all the 23 IITs so that awareness regarding R&D at the IITs increases. This would help develop more affordable technologies for the benefit of all. We are expecting active participation from industry, academic and R&D institutions, as well as government to seek more collaborative and multidisciplinary avenues for furthering the vision of ''Make in India" and Atmanirbhar Bharat.”
Dr. BVR Mohan Reddy, Chairman, BoG IIT Hyderabad and IIT Roorkee said, ‘’The IITs have been consistently contributing towards nation-building. In today’s time, when multi-disciplinary research leading to cutting edge innovations are taking centre stage, it is important that the research and development done at the IITs is exhibited and presented to the industry and policy makers for meaningful outcomes that benefit the society. With this Fair, we bring the key stakeholders from industry, government institutions, and academia closer to collaborate for building an Atma Nirbhar Bharat. The Fair provides an opportunity to learn, exchange ideas and innovate for accelerating country's progress in the ‘Amrit kaal’.”Prof. B. S. Murty, Director, IIT Hyderabad, said, “IITs have been working relentlessly for the past decades towards enriching the research and development pool of the country. Right from making breakthrough discoveries to developing grass roots innovations, IITs have stood the test of time in supporting the nation for a holistic growth. This R&D Fair is envisioned to enhance the public perception of the IIT ecosystem and to look for potential collaborative avenues among key stakeholders.”
There are ten broad themes identified in focused areas for the event:
The selected projects will be presented before the audience in designated booths during the 2-day mega event. Representatives from Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) and National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), will be present at the event. The audience shall also include administrators and students from universities and colleges from small towns, global IIT alumni, faculties of various CFTIs, scientists from DRDO, ISRO, CSIR and ICAR, and so on.
The 2-day event will hold interactive as well as one-to-one sessions among the academia and industry representatives. Dr. Pawan Goenka, Chairman, BoG IIT Madras; Dr. BVR Mohan Reddy, Chairman, BoG IIT Hyderabad and IIT Roorkee; Dr. K. Radhakrishan, Chairman, Standing Committee for IIT Council and BoG IIT Kanpur; and all the Directors of the IITs will be present among the other invitees.
About IInvenTiv: In its first year, IInvenTiv is an R&D Fair organized under the supervision of a Steering Committee headed by Dr. Pawan Goenka, Chairman, BoG IIT Madras; Dr. BVR Mohan Reddy, Chairman, BoG IIT Hyderabad and IIT Roorkee. The event marks the coming together of all the 23 IITs under one umbrella to showcase their respective research and innovation expertise to create more awareness around them. The mega R&D showcase commemorates the 75 years of India’s Independence as part of Azadi ka Amrit Mahotsav, and is aligned with the Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, and Digital India initiatives. This Fair is also aimed to be an annual affair to seek out collaborations among the state institutions, industries and the higher academia for futuristic research and innovations. Advertisements
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