FREE ONLINE MONEY GLOBALLY-- EXPECTATIONS VS. REALITY...

 01

Morning Money

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There’s never a good time for the U.S. government to be unable to pay all of its obligations, but this would be an especially bad year for that.

For one, the place where that debt is traded, the Treasury market, has already been under strain because of the Federal Reserve’s relentless interest-rate-hiking campaign. Rising rates make even recent lower-rated debt less valuable, so there are fewer buyers right now. Also, the market relies on a small number of large dealers to intermediate trading for a huge volume of debt, and they can only hold a finite amount of assets on their books at any one time.

These and other factors mean trading and pricing aren’t as smooth as they would ideally be, so U.S. officials are trying to reform how the market is structured to make it work better.

Since the Fed is still engaged in its battle against high inflation, it might be more hesitant to intervene and buy Treasury bonds to prop up the market, at least as dramatically as it otherwise would. That’s because buying bonds would run at cross-purposes with its efforts to slow down the economy.

So while markets have been through these showdowns before, notably in 2011, this time could prove more dangerous. Markets Policy Partners co-founder John Fagan, who led the Treasury Department's markets room from 2014 to 2018, said the Fed is battle-tested. But “that’s the only factor I can think of that would be more favorable than last time around,” he said. “Everything else looks worse.”

The U.S. already reached its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday, and the Treasury Department has begun using “extraordinary measures” to pay its bills.Liquidity problems probably wouldn’t get seriously worseunless the U.S. does actually go past the X date, when it is unable to meet all its obligations, according to people MM spoke with. Fagan said this is historically a political dilemma for Treasury, including while he was there: “It wasn’t doing the Democrats a lot of favors for markets to be laughing this off … when, in reality, it’s just the markets assuming it’s not going to be a problem.”

“Almost by definition it’s really hard to sit in an investment meeting and say, ‘We’ve got to bring down risk and really change our portfolio strategy and do countermeasures and change the way we’re investing based on this low-probability, high-impact risk.’”

But if Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit in time, the Treasury market could start looking more like it did in spring 2020, said Stanford University Professor Darrell Duffie, who has done extensive work on government debt markets. (Your MM host tried to explain what happened to Treasuries at the onset of the pandemic in plain English here, but suffice it to say, we nearly had a financial crisis).

“Some investors in Treasuries bought them because they’re supposed to be perfectly safe and some of those people will try to sell them,” he said. “At some point, [dealers] may not be able to handle all of those demands.”

In the meantime, regular companies that invest in Treasuries mostly expect this to be resolved in time but for there to be choppiness in the meantime, said Michael Dombrowski, corporate treasury adviser at finance automation platform Rho. They might even be looking to capitalize on any mispriced Treasuries.

But his clients would rather see the situation resolved. “It’s causing them undue stress, and they should be keeping their eyes on the ball on other parts of their business,” he said.

Have a great weekend — Please keep sending tips to [email protected].

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Fed Governor Chris Waller discusses the economic outlook at the Council on Foreign Relations at 1 p.m. … The Peterson Institute launches a new book by Olivier Blanchard on the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy at 1 p.m. …

Exclusive: Senate Republicans press Gensler to show work on market structure revamp— Five Senate Republicans led by Thom Tillis are calling on SEC Chair Gary Gensler to provide the research and analysis to justify the equity market overhaul the agency is proposing. They warned Gensler in a letter that the plan could pose “grave harm” to investors and the U.S. economy, and asked why the agency hasn’t conducted a “comprehensive cost-benefit study” of the combined rules. The lawmakers on the letter include Sens. Bill Hagerty, Mike Crapo, Cynthia Lummis and Kevin Cramer.

First look: The economic view from the White House— National Economic Council Director Brian Deese has a blog post this morning detailing the aspects of the U.S. economy that improved over the first two years of the Biden administration. He outlines why White House policy wins have set the stage for “durable, resilient, and inclusive long-run growth.”

One of the closing lines nods to the upcoming debt ceiling fight. Deese warns of “a range of economic risks — from geopolitical uncertainty to the potential for reckless extremism around the full faith and credit of the United States.”

Inside the White House debt limit thinking, courtesy of our Ben White — Senior White House officials tell POLITICO they are not freaked out by the U.S. breaching the debt limit.

They know an actual default would crush markets and the economy and derail President Joe Biden’s expected reelection bid. But they say it’s not a huge focus right now. And West Wing aides think Republicans have an extraordinarily weak political hand when it comes to the borrowing cap issue.

“The media wants to turn this into a central, daily issue for us,” one top White House aide said Thursday. “It isn’t. There’s five months until the debt limit expires, probably more. In the history of debt limits, there’s never been a resolution until the end.” The official added that “you never know the mechanics until the end.”

— For now, the White House has a troika of officials leading the debt limit strategy: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Deese and legislative affairs director Louisa Terrell.

They ultimately expect a deal with little or nothing in the way of big spending cuts. For now, the three meet once a week in White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain’s office to go over economic logistics and political strategy.

— In the White House’s view, Republicans are on very poor political ground. Unlike 2010, they scored no big mandate for spending cuts in the 2022 midterms. Republicans raised the debt limit repeatedly under President Donald Trump without spending reductions.

Democrats plan to continue reaching out on the debt limit to more moderate Republicans from districts Biden won in 2020 and will hammer the GOP in general over the issue.

“What we are going to focus on is their plan,” the official said. “Not a philosophical debate about the debt limit, but hey, if they want to hold it hostage, hold it hostage for what? For slashing Social Security? For slashing Medicare? For slashing education? For slashing national defense? That’s the focus. That’s what will shift the debate.”

For your X date calculations — Steven Kelly, senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, has found $14 billion “parked uselessly on the Fed balance sheet” that Treasury could use as headroom to avoid a default.

The latest from Davos –

— Scaramucci isn’t giving up on crypto — POLITICO’s team in Switzerland has a deep dive into the push by Anthony Scaramucci to convince investors and potential backers that everything is just fine in crypto land despite the industry’s collapse.

— Joe Manchin faces Europe’s wrath— We also have a look at Sen. Joe Manchin’s Davos visit, where he’s been determined to change the minds of Europeans who are furious about the U.S. clean-energy subsidies and American manufacturing support he helped turn into law.

A message from Sallie Mae®:

The SEC crackdown continues— Crypto lending platform Nexos agreed to pay $45 million to settle charges that it broke securities laws. "Compliance with our time-tested public policies isn't a choice,” Gensler said in a statement announcing the settlement.

New FTX management weighs reboot— The Wall Street Journal scooped Thursday that FTX CEO John Ray III is looking at the possibility of reviving the bankrupt crypto exchange as he tries to return money to customers and creditors. “There are stakeholders we’re working with who’ve identified what they see is a viable business,” he said.

PCAOB sued over 'unaccountable' prosecutions — The nonprofit New Civil Liberties Alliance sued the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board late Thursday, targeting what it called “secret, unaccountable, and inherently biased prosecutorial processes.” PCAOB spokesperson Jennifer Donohue said in a statement that the audit watchdog is “laser focused on protecting investors.”

HUD revives discrimination rule — The Biden administration renewed a push to require cities to address patterns of residential segregation, revamping a regulation that former President Donald Trump scrapped, our Katy O’Donnell reports.

Consumer advocates want SEC to act on credit ratings agencies — From Declan Harty: Eleven academics and investor advocates from groups like Better Markets, the Consumer Federation of America and Americans for Financial Reform are pressing the SEC to beef up the accountability of credit ratings agencies.

Housing woes weigh on mayors— POLITICO: “Red states, blue states, big cities, small towns — mayors from across the country this week are venting about their struggles to address a housing affordability crisis and increase in homelessness.”

JPMorgan rules out ‘special’ bonuses for Dimon — FT: “JPMorgan Chase said it would not give longtime chief executive Jamie Dimon special awards ‘in the future’ following investor pushback to a $50mn award last year.”

People moves — Kathleen Mellody has joined JPMorgan Chase as head of federal government relations. She previously helped lead government relations for the Investment Company Institute and held roles in the Obama White House and at the Treasury Department.

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02

MasterClass Free Trial: Get a 30-day money-back guarantee

If you want to learn something new, even advanced concepts, you need to start somewhere. Remote learning, or elearning, is a great way to catch up on some classes or resources, no matter your age. Online learning has evolved quite a bit over the last few years, and whether you’re a teacher, a student, or a professional looking to extend your knowledge or skillset, the best online learning platforms are worthy of consideration. MasterClass is one of them, as it offers more than 150 video lessons taught by the world’s best. The subject matter includes things like business and leadership, photography, cooking, writing, music, acting, and sports, among many others. With such in-depth offerings by so many famous faces, many people go in search of a MasterClass free trial to at least check out some of the content before spending anything. Read onward for more details on how to go about accessing the MasterClass library in a free trial capacity

Is there a MasterClass free trial?

There isn’t a MasterClass free trial, so to speak. But MasterClass is so certain of the quality of its lessons that it offers a 30-day money-back guarantee. Taking advantage of this will allow you to enjoy full access to the full MasterClass catalog of more than 150 classes. Each class includes around 20 video lessons that are about 10 minutes long on average, along with an in-depth workbook. You’ll also be able to access the MasterClass smartphone and TV apps, offline lessons, and the MasterClass community. A MasterClass subscription starts at $10 per month, but if you aren’t happy within the first 30 days, all you have to do is go through the cancellation process to get a full refund. While this is more of a create-your-own MasterClass free trial, if you’re looking for a way to explore the best MasterClass online courses and see if anything in the catalog is worth a full subscription for you, this is the best way to go about it.

Can you get MasterClass for free?

The closest way to get MasterClass for free is by utilizing the 30-day money-back guarantee. This will get you access to the MasterClass library, with the ability to cancel your subscription for a full refund within the first 30 days of starting a MasterClass subscription. This is a good way to test the water, and MasterClass’s library of courses is a really good option for virtual learning at just $10 per month for the entry-level subscription. But if free is what you’re in the market for, you can also explore the best free online classes to take based on your interests, where you’ll find plenty of opportunities to tap into the world of online learning at no cost.

Alternatively, you might look into the Chegg free trial if you’re a student interested in online tutoring, among other services. It’s an invaluable academic resource that offers help with homework, preparation for exams, professional proofreading, in-depth subject analysis, writing assistance, and more. Definitely check it out if you’re a current student!

Are there any MasterClass deals?

MasterClass deals do pop up from time to time, with MasterClass frequently offering buy one, get one free subscriptions around annual sales events such as Cyber Monday and Black Friday. This would make a great option if you’d like to get a subscription for yourself and gift one to someone else. Generally speaking, though, the MasterClass platform is reasonably priced, with subscription tiers priced at $10, $15, and $23 per month, with the main difference between each tier being the number of devices you’re able to stream MasterClass content on simultaneously. MasterClass also has a program called MasterClass at Work, which offers group rates on volume-based orders.

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03

Do you have free money waiting for you?

GREENVILLE, N.C. (WITN) - Our state’s treasurer claims you have a better chance at claiming cash through a state initiative than winning the Mega Millions Jackpot.

Treasurer Dale Folwell says all it takes is a few taps on your smartphone to enter into NC Cash’s portal for free.

The State Treasury is sitting on 1.02 billion dollars of unclaimed property, and they are looking to return it to individuals and businesses like Starlight Cafe owner, Tobias Boutilier.

“There’s a lot of scams out there, especially this time of year but if there is unclaimed money that people have out there waiting for them, I think everyone could use some extra cash,” said Boutilier.

Recovering from a hard year of COVID-19 setbacks and inflation hikes, Uptown spots are hoping to continue growing and every little bit helps.

“When you run a restaurant, you have a lot of employees and uh a lot of expenses going out and the margins are real tight so anything helps especially this time of year,” said Boutilier.

Through the state’s NC Cash initiative, residents and businesses can claim property like cash, bonds, stocks, lock boxes, insurance

In the current 2023 fiscal year, as of Nov. 30, the state treasury has distributed more than $44 million statewide, representing nearly $75,000 in property claims.

For comparison, last year for that same time period there were just over $70,000 claims paid, valued at just over $42 million. In Eastern Carolina alone, $92 million worth of claims is sitting safely at the treasurer’s office. Some of the counties with the highest number of unclaimed properties are Onslow, Pitt, and Craven. A full list is down below.

Claims sit in the office so that there is a process for people can get back something that belonged to them, according to Treasurer Folwell.

So, how is it done? Head to NCCASH.com, click “search now,” Type in your name or business and claim your assets.

There is $92.8 million dollars worth of assets sitting at the treasurers office for Eastern Carolina alone.(North Carolina Department of State Treasurer)

This is the county breakdown, provided by the North Carolina Department of State Treasurer, of the $92 million dollars in safekeeping.

Cash in Safekeeping Owner Count Property Count

Beaufort $5,117,606.44 68,566 63,250

Bertie $2,063,666.30 39,850 38,339

Carteret $9,736,547.32 131,031 120,861

Craven $14,221,492.78 199,301 184,984

Duplin $4,536,743.84 66,846 63,021

Greene $1,108,768.86 20,646 19,316

Hyde $522,103.21 6,319 5,880

Jones $1,046,382.16 17,600 16,388

Lenoir $6,926,208.94 100,885 94,209

Martin $2,355,415.02 35,671 33,208

Onslow $22,805,539.99 352,158 326,929

Pamlico $1,292,654.43 17,256 15,793

Pitt $19,621,432 270,686 252,135

Tyrrell $270,073.36 4,353 4,075

Washington $1,125,488.43 17,976 16,761

TOTAL: $92,750,123.08 1,349,144 1,255,149

Copyright 2022 WITN. All rights reserved.