What NOT to Do in the Megaprojects Industry

 01

What Lies Ahead for the Plastics Industry?

Business forecasts are a tricky proposition in the best of times. Within our fraught context, one might consider them fanciful. Still, businesses need some sort of framework to plan for the future. During a press conference announcing the publication of the Plastics Industry Association’s (PLASTICS) 2020 Size & Impact Report, Perc Pineda, PhD, Chief Economist of the association, outlined three possible scenarios for the plastics sector through 2024. It turns out the outlook may not be as dire as you might imagine.

The plastics and overall manufacturing sectors historically move in tandem, as shown in Figure 1. Pineda applied that pattern to develop three possible scenarios for the plastics sector in the next three years.

In Figure 2 below, the first scenario shows a steep drop in shipments in 2020, as the industry gradually claws back to growth over a three-year horizon.

“Assuming there are no major supply disruptions and that aggregate demand does not deteriorate, a 16.3% decrease in shipments this year, as happened during the 2008/2009 recession, will lead to 2.3% growth through 2024,” said Pineda. That is shown in Figure 2 — the first scenario depicted in red dashes. “That means a decrease in shipments of plastics to $265.5 million in 2020, increasing slowly to $290.7 million by 2024,” said Pineda. He points out that, unlike the Great Recession a little over 10 years ago, there is no credit crunch this time around. “People are still able to borrow, and lending is not constrained,” said Pineda, making it less likely that this less-optimistic scenario will come to pass.

In the second scenario, visualized in the figure by a dotted line, Pineda operates under the assumption that the annual decline will mirror the approximate 10% decline of the second quarter of this year. Sluggish economic activity would result in shipments eventually growing to $312.6 million in the forecast period.

The third scenario posits a 10% decline this year with a steep recovery in 2021 and continued growth going forward. That is the solid line in the figure. “You could see that as optimistic,” said Pineda, “but it could also be considered conservative to some extent, if there is still a likelihood of growing more than 10% next year. Shipments would increase to $314 million in 2021 and $336.1 million in 2024.”

On the employment front, Pineda sees little reason to anticipate change. Labor supplies persist, he said, “and the skills gap remains a key issue.” Noting the absence of any kind of government initiative that might reverse this trend, Pineda sees a small but sure decline in employment numbers in the plastics sector.

Pineda discusses these issues in greater detail in the 2020 Size & Impact Report published by the Plastics Industry Association, which also includes a plethora of statistics and data on the plastics industry. Association members can download the report for free from the PLASTICS website. It is also available to non-members for a fee. 

02

Inside the nightlife industry: What I wish I’d known before starting work in a nightclub

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03

What radio industry expects from this festive season

The radio industry, although not fully recovered, has come a long way since the pandemic. Radio broadcasters are hopeful about the 2022 festive season fuelling the sector's recovery and some are hopeful about reaching pre-Covid levels this year. 

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Nisha Narayanan

According to Nisha Narayanan, Director and COO, Red FM and Magic FM, the business is normal, if not prosperous, as of now, and added that as a leader, she is enthusiastic about the festive season.

"As the markets are hinting at the arrival of normalcy, we are hopeful in the next 2-3 years we will attain it thoroughly. What makes the festive season even more thrilling are other activities like weddings, travel and hospitality running at full capacity and people moving freely. We are all looking forward to leading a pandemic-free life and that is expected in this festive season. Therefore, it is safe to say that expectations are inflated," she said. 

However, she added that macroeconomic situations like inflation and oil prices have had an impact on optimistic outlooks for the time period ahead.

Ashit Kukian

As per Ashit Kukian, CEO, Radio City, there is an overall positive sentiment among consumers as well as advertisers that is fuelling the recovery in the industry. "Radio has always been a very creative medium in presenting and curating campaigns which attract audiences faster than almost any other medium. The radio business is back on the growth trajectory and brands have been including radio as a vital medium for advertising in their marketing mix," he said. 

He further added that increased media consumption and consumer engagement with the radio are contributing to the sector's revival and supporting business growth post-pandemic. According to him, the spending capacity of consumers has increased and there is a rise in the advertising budget of brands. "We are confident that the volume recovery is set to cross the pre-pandemic numbers," stated Kukian.

Preeti Nihalini

Preeti Nihalini, COO, Radio Mirchi, said that the Ganpati period has set a very positive tone for radio advertising. "After a good Q1 FY23 wherein the industry clocked an estimated 125% YoY revenue growth and Mirchi clocked growth at 145%, the industry is even more optimistic about the upcoming and ongoing quarters," said Nihalini.

The digital boost, which was further accelerated by the pandemic, has pushed all the radio players to strategise their digital solutions. A big part of the revenue is actually coming in from their digital divisions, say leaders.

"We are receiving great traction from advertisers not only for our radio business but also for our solutions business. With support from our sponsors, we are launching our first season of the video content series ‘Dream Homes with Gauri Khan’. We have almost doubled our revenue through our Solutions portfolio this year. Given this growth and the rising festive spirits, we are optimistic about the second half of this year," said Nihalini. 

"Our business strategy is focused on the amalgamation of the radio plus digital termed ‘Radigitalisation’ with the aim of catering to a larger set of audiences. Spending on advertisements is set to boost earnings as we are providing radio plus digital offerings to the brands. Our sustained efforts to digitise and broaden our offerings will continue to contribute to increasing our revenue," Kukian of Radio City stated.

According to Narayanan of Red FM, the sacred goal for most players in the industry is to achieve normalcy comparable to the pre-pandemic levels. "The fundamental approach to the business has evolved into a multi-faceted, multi-platform approach, rather than only on FCT business. We are hopeful that in the next 6-9 months we will be able to achieve that and even grow beyond," she stated. 

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